Why You Should Buy the Watch You Love, Not the Hype

For quite a while, a small number of steel sports watches have been effectively impossible to get at retail. You could walk into a boutique and be told there was a very long waiting list (or that there wasn't one, which usually amounted to the same experience: you’re not getting the watch). So the secondary market stepped in, and its prices had absolutely nothing to do with retail. They had everything to do with hype.

Pre-owned prices went up, and many of the people who'd bought these watches decided they'd rather have the extra cash. Later, secondary market prices came down. The waiting lists for new pieces at retail got shorter, and the conversation moved on. 

Why Watch Prices Surged in 2020-2022 and Then Fell

The 2020 to 2022 price rally had plenty feeding it. People were stuck at home with money they'd normally have spent on travel or restaurants or any number of other things. Steel watches with integrated bracelets were already what everyone seemed to want. Then, in 2021, Patek Philippe discontinued the Nautilus 5711, and Audemars Piguet ended production of the Royal Oak Jumbo 15202. The combination of discretionary funds and popular watches getting discontinued led to big price jumps.

According to WatchCharts, Nautilus and Aquanaut prices more than doubled between early 2021 and early 2022, and a steel 5711 that retailed for around $35,000 was changing hands for several times that price. But most of it petered out pretty quickly. By the summer of 2023, WatchCharts data showed the average secondhand watch price had fallen 31% from its March 2022 high. 

This was a familiar pattern for some collectors. "Having spent around 20 years in fashion, I've seen this movie before," said collector Omar Traboulsi, better known as @thewrongwrist on Instagram. "Something becomes the thing to own, everybody wants it, and suddenly you see it everywhere. Then the next big thing comes along, and people move on." 

"Watches are no different, especially today, when social media can turn a watch into an overnight sensation," Traboulsi added. "Sometimes, people fall in love with the watch itself. Other times, they fall in love with the idea of owning something everybody else wants." 

Panerai’s Hype Cycle: How Paneristi and Celebrities Drove Demand

It wasn't even the first time for watches, mind you. Panerai went through the same cycle about twenty years earlier.

The brand spent decades making instruments for the Italian navy before the Luminor was reintroduced to the public in 1993. Sylvester Stallone wore one in the film Daylight a few years later, and once the Vendôme Group (now Richemont) bought the company in 1997, Panerai ended up on wrists everywhere. Its most devoted fans called themselves the Paneristi, and there were waiting lists for references you can now pick up pre-owned without much effort. 

Then tastes swung back toward smaller watches, and the catalog filled up with so many variations on the same few designs that none stayed scarce for long. WatchCharts puts most new Luminors at around $8,000 to $10,000, while plenty of good pre-owned examples sell for about half that. 

The watch underneath hasn't really changed, though. The crown-protecting bridge is there because it does its job, and the dials are about as easy to read as anything you can buy. The 40mm PAM00125 Luminor Power Reserve wears smaller than people expect from a Panerai, and if you wear your watch on your right wrist, the PAM00115 Destro moves the crown and its bridge over to the left side of the case. 

What Matters After the Hype: Enduring Watch Design

That's the part that gets forgotten about. Hype usually starts with something genuinely good, which is easy to forget once prices get out of hand, and Gérald Genta's designs were still iconic, even when the prices of the Royal Oak and Nautilus came down. 

"For me, the real test begins when the noise dies down," Traboulsi said. "Take away the waiting lists, the resale premiums, the celebrity endorsements, and the Instagram wrist shots. Do you still want to wear that watch? Does it still make you smile when you look at it? Does it still feel like you?" 

In his view, that's what separates a potential classic from a passing trend. "A classic has a strong identity, a design that stands on its own, and something genuine to say," he said. "It doesn't need constant validation from the market. It can be unconventional, even controversial, but it has to have substance beyond its moment in the spotlight." 

Some watches actually come out of it looking better. "Once the market moves on, you can finally appreciate them without all the noise getting in the way," Traboulsi said. During the boom, the 36mm Royal Oak 14790 was easy to write off as a consolation prize for anyone who couldn't get a Jumbo. It's still a slim steel Royal Oak with the octagonal bezel and integrated bracelet, though, and on plenty of wrists, the smaller size works better. 

Why Watches Return to Popularity After the Hype Fades

Hype doesn't always leave for good. The secondary market has been recovering through 2026, and at the start of the year, WatchCharts said the Nautilus and Aquanaut markets were the hottest they'd been in about five years.

The steel Aquanaut Travel Time 5164A shows how little that changes the watch itself. Patek Philippe introduced it in 2011 as the first Aquanaut with a complication and discontinued it in 2024. Its second time zone is set with a pair of pushers on the left side of the case, and if you bought one because you wanted a Patek you could travel with, this month's prices won't change how it feels to put on. 

Traboulsi feels much the same about the independent pieces he wears. "My love for independent watchmaking has only grown stronger," he said. "Watches from MB&F, De Bethune, and URWERK remain part of my daily rotation because I connect with the people, the philosophy, and the creativity behind them. I don't need the market to tell me they're worth loving." 

Buying a Watch After the Hype Dies Down

Calmer markets tend to be kinder to anyone buying pre-owned. There's more to choose from and time to compare condition and history, instead of grabbing the first one that comes up. 

"What I notice when the hype disappears is how much clearer someone's taste becomes," Traboulsi said. "They stop asking, 'What is this watch worth?' and start asking, 'What does this watch mean to me?' And honestly, that's a much better place to be as a collector." 

It also helps to buy from someone who's seen a few of these cycles. European Watch Company has been trading since 1993, long enough to watch Panerai's boom and the 2022 peak come and go, and chose early on to stick with enduring design rather than chase trends. 

What Happens to a Watch After the Hype? Buy What You Love

Mostly, the watches get worn. Plenty of what was bought at the peak went straight into a safe, because nobody wanted to scratch something they planned to sell. Once the resale premium goes, it starts coming out from time to time. 

Not every hyped watch deserved the attention. But a Luminor that had a waiting list in the mid-2000s is now just a big, legible watch with plenty of history behind it, and the people wearing them every day don't seem too worried about what anyone else thinks. That’s the way it should be. 

That's more or less where Traboulsi has ended up, too. "If there's one thing I'd like people to take away from my experience, it's this: don't confuse desirability with personal desire," he said. 

He doesn't buy watches to flip them, and some of his favorites might leave other people scratching their heads. "Buy what you love, wear what makes you happy, and let the market do whatever it wants," he said. "After all, the best watch on your wrist is the one you would still want to wear even if nobody else ever noticed it."